Online report 19/07 Prospective crime mapping in operational context - Final report

Prospective crime mapping in operational context - Overview of full report

Predicting crime is the stuff of science fantasy. However, there are patterns which make useful prediction possible as a routine part of policing. Domestic burglary, for example, clusters in space and time. When a burglary is experienced, another is likely nearby and soon. The elevation in burglary risk declines over time. The subsequent burglary is likely to occur around the same time of day. In the research reported, a burglary forecasting tool (ProMap - prospective mapping) was developed, yielding risk predictions for clusters of homes which were significantly more accurate than alternative approaches to mapping risk. ProMap was rolled out in one police Basic Command Unit (BCU) for a trial six month period, and a process evaluation conducted. After teething troubles, it became clear that there were no major practical obstacles to ProMap implementation. Most police officers came to see Promap as useful, enquiring if it could be adapted to predict other crimes.

Extending ProMap to other crime types and places, we envision a sophisticated way of optimizing police patrols in real time, thereby offering advantages to police and local authorities in crime reduction and detection.