Pathfinder programmes in the Probation Service: a retrospective analysis RDS OLR 66/04

This report examines the effectiveness of five structured Offending Behaviour Pathfinder programmes implemented by the National Probation Service in 2000- 2001. The programmes consisted of a sequence of sessions delivered to offenders working in small groups or on an individual basis, and they aimed to teach new skills that would enable change in thinking and behaviour, and contribute to avoidance of further offending.

A large sample of 2,230 offenders assigned to such programmes was followed up for a period of between 12 and 18 months and compared with a similar group of 2,645 offenders not allocated to the programmes. Reconviction outcomes were then compared.

The research found poor implementation evident in that 65 per cent of offenders did not complete a programme order and only 54 per cent of offenders were appropriately targeted for programmes. It found that offenders designated to attend programmes had a higher risk of re-offending than the comparison group, and at follow-up were more likely to have been reconvicted. However, offenders who completed a programme had a significantly lower rate of reconviction than the comparison group and non-completers, after taking risk levels into account. This later finding could mean that completed treatment reduces re-offending but the comparison control group design used in this study can not rule out that this may be the result of a selection effect for those who completed programmes.